Evolution of business and consumer uncertainty in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. A sector analysis in 32 European countries

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of business and consumer uncertainty amid the Coronavirus pandemic in 32 European countries and the European Union (EU). Since uncertainty is not directly observable, we approximate it using the geomètric discrepancy indicator of Claveria et al. (2019). This approach allows us quantifying the proportion of disagreement in Business and consumer expectations of 32 countries. We have used information from all monthly forward-looking questions contained in Joint Harmonised Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys conducted by the European Commission (EC): the industry survey, the service survey, the retail trade survey, the building survey and the consumer survey (...)