When rainfall meets hunger in Guatemala

Abstract

In Guatemala, the prevalence of stunting in children younger than 5 years old reaches 46.5% nationally, with peaks of 90% in the hardest-hit municipalities (WFP, 2020). Food insecurity in the country is driven by both climate and non-climate factors, and its pathways are complex (Beveridge et al., 2019). Additionally, 70% of the impoverished population lives in rural areas, where agricultural production is mainly rain-fed (Lopez-Ridaura et al., 2019). As part of its efforts to fight hunger in the country, Guatemala's National Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (SESAN) launched in 2018 a monitoring system called ‘Sala Situacional’, aimed at providing decision-makers with real-time information to maneuver and distribute available resources to increase food security. Although SESAN considers the real-time monitoring system a great success, knowing with enough time in advance the expected levels of food insecurity provides more opportunities to deploy resources effectively. This talk will present work conducted with SESAN on the main drivers of acute undernutrition in Guatemala, and the co-design of a NextGen forecast system for acute undernutrition for kids under 5, involving both climate and non-climate variables. I will also discuss present plans for SESAN to assimilate the new NextGen forecast system as part of its Sala Situacional.