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Title:
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What is a stake without high-stakes exams? Students’ evaluation and admission to college at the time of Covid-19
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Author:
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Arenas Jal, Andreu; Calsamiglia, Caterina; Loviglio, Annalisa
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Notes:
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The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 inhibited face-to-face education and constrained exam taking. In many countries worldwide, high-stakes exams happening at the end of the school year determine college admissions. This paper investigates the impact of using historical data of school and high-stakes exams results to train a model to predict high-stakes exams given the available data in the Spring. The most transparent and accurate model turns out to be a linear regression model with high school GPA as the main predictor. Further analysis of the predictions reflect how high-stakes exams relate to GPA in high school for different subgroups in the population. Predicted scores slightly advantage females and low SES individuals, who perform relatively worse in high-stakes exams than in high school. Our preferred model accounts for about 50% of the out-of-sample variation in the high-stakes exam. On average, the student rank using predicted scores differs from the actual rank by almost 17 percentiles. This suggests that either high-stakes exams capture individual skills that are not measured by high school grades or that high-stakes exams are a noisy measure of the same skill. |
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Subject(s):
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-COVID-19
-Avaluació dels estudiants
-Anàlisi de regressió
-COVID-19
-Rating of students
-Regression analysis |
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Rights:
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cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Arenas Jal et al., 2021
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
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Document type:
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Working Paper |
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Published by:
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Institut d’Economia de Barcelona
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