Título:
|
Multi-model prediction for demand forecast in water distribution networks
|
Autor/a:
|
López Farías, Rodrigo; Puig Cayuela, Vicenç; Rodríguez Rangel, Héctor; Flores, Juan J.
|
Otros autores:
|
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria de Sistemes, Automàtica i Informàtica Industrial; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. SAC - Sistemes Avançats de Control |
Abstract:
|
This paper presents a multi-model predictor called Qualitative Multi-Model Predictor Plus (QMMP+) for demand forecast in water distribution networks. QMMP+ is based on the decomposition of the quantitative and qualitative information of the time-series. The quantitative component (i.e., the daily consumption prediction) is forecasted and the pattern mode estimated using a Nearest Neighbor (NN) classifier and a Calendar. The patterns are updated via a simple Moving Average scheme. The NN classifier and the Calendar are executed simultaneously every period and the most suited model for prediction is selected using a probabilistic approach. The proposed solution for water demand forecast is compared against Radial Basis Function Artificial Neural Networks (RBF-ANN), the statistical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Double Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW) approaches, providing the best results when applied to real demand of the Barcelona Water Distribution Network. QMMP+ has demonstrated that the special modelling treatment of water consumption patterns improves the forecasting accuracy |
Abstract:
|
Peer Reviewed |
Materia(s):
|
-Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica::Automàtica i control -Water - Distribution -Predictive control -prediction -multi-model -water demand -short-term prediction -Aigua -- Distribució -Control predictiu |
Derechos:
|
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ |
Tipo de documento:
|
Artículo - Versión publicada Artículo |
Compartir:
|
|