Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome

Abstract

<p>Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome,</p><p>shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit</p><p>from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may</p><p>determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we</p><p>investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected</p><p>range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to</p><p>plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait</p><p>records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra</p><p>shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater</p><p>variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts,</p><p>and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait</p><p>values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected</p><p>ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that</p><p>abundance change and range shiftswill not lead to directionalmodifications in</p><p>shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar</p><p>trait spaces.</p>