Modelling the dynamic interaction between economic uncertainty, growth, unemployment and suicide

Abstract

Economic uncertainty is a driver of the business cycle. In a recent study, Claveria (2022) used a fixed-effects model to assess the impact of uncertainty on suicide rates worldwide. Using that same panel, in which global economic uncertainty is linked to the evolution of the suicide rates in 183 countries between 2000 and 2019, this work evaluates the dynamic interconnections between unemployment, economic growth, uncertainty and suicide using a dynamic panel model. Overall, the analysis suggests that increases in the growth of economic uncertainty and unemployment may lead to increases in suicide rates growth worldwide. When replicating the experiment for different regions and for groups of countries classified according to their level of income, the greatest impact of increases in economic uncertainty is found in upper middle-income economies. Given the anticipatory nature of econòmic uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the economy, and its relationship with suicide rates, the obtained results suggest the usefulness of uncertainty indicators as tools for the early detection of periods of increased suicide risk and for the design of suicide prevention strategies