Does longevity impact the severity of traffic accidents? A comparative study of young-older and old-older drivers [WP]

Abstract

This article seeks to demonstrate differences in the severity of traffic accidents among two subgroups of older drivers – young-older (65–75) and old-older (75+). Spain, in common with other countries, has recorded an increase in its number of older drivers due to an increase in this population cohort, an increase that is set to become significant over coming years. Moreover, older drivers are now living and driving for longer periods given increasing levels of life expectancy for the elderly. The greater frequency and longevity of older drivers suggests the need to introduce a possible segmentation within this group at risk, in line with practices for drivers below the age of 65 (thus eliminating the generic interval of 65 and over as applied today in road safety data and in the automobile insurance sector). Here, we draw on data for 2016 provided by the Dirección General de Tráfico de España (Spanish Traffic Authority) and apply generalized additive and generalized linear models to demonstrate that accident severity and the expected costs of accidents increase when the driver is over the age of 75. We identify the factors related to the accident, vehicle and driver that have a significant impact on the probability of the accident being slight, serious or fatal for different age groups. Our results have obvious implications for regulators responsible for road safety policies – most specifically as they consider the need to introduce an upper age limit for driving – and for the automobile insurance industry, which to date has not examined the impact that the longevity of drivers is likely to have on their balance sheets.