TerraFIRMA: future impacts, risks and mitigation actions in a changing earth system

Abstract

In this presentation I describe a new 5-year research project that supports the development and application of the 2nd UK Earth system model (UKESM2). I will outline the planned developments to UKESM2, building on the UKESM1 model, and then discuss a range of science work packages utilizing the full UKESM model and its component models. These work packages cover: (i) the representation of Near-Term Climate Forcers and the potential mitigation of future climate change and air quality, (ii) simulation of the global carbon cycle and land-based climate change mitigation, (iii) the risk of overshooting key climate policy targets, such as the 2015 Paris warming targets, and ensuing consequences for potential Earth system tipping points and climate change impacts. Finally, I will outline how UKESM2 and the TerraFIRMA project aligns with, and will contribute to, a new Horizon Europe proposal, OptimESM, which includes BSC and EC-Earth as a partner.