A simheuristic for project portfolio optimization combining individual project risk, scheduling effects, interruptions, and project risk correlations

Abstract

This paper introduces a simheuristic method to the Project Portfolio Selection Problem, designed to maximize the net present value of the portfolio while considering uncertain costs, schedules, interruptions, and inter-project risk correlations. The novel approach combines techniques from Monte Carlo simulation, critical path analysis, queuing theory, and optimization, integrating baseline schedules, project-level uncertainties, budgetary constraints, and risk correlations in a single model. A computational experiment is conducted on a realistic set of ten candidate projects and validated respect to the deterministic version of the problem, demonstrating its ability to select near optimal portfolio proposals with varying combinations of risk and net present value. The findings highlight the significant impact of factors such as contingency reserve allocation policies, operational interruptions, and project risk correlations on portfolio decisions, constituting a helpful framework for the decision-makers at portfolio level.