Forecasting the Global Battery Material Flow: Analyzing the Break-Even Points at Which Secondary Battery Raw Materials Can Substitute Primary Materials in the Battery Production

Abstract

Growing numbers of electric vehicles (EVs) as well as controversial discussions on cost, scarcity and the environmental and social sustainability of primary raw materials that are needed for battery production together emphasize the necessity for battery recycling in the future. Nonetheless, the market for battery recycling is not fully understood and captured in data today. The underlying reasons are found in both market size and various parameters such as the battery-technology mix, the resulting material demand and expected battery lifetime. In consequence, the question of when secondary-material availability from battery recycling is sufficient to satisfy the global cobalt demand for EV applications has not yet been clarified. To address this question, this study estimates the global battery raw-material demand together with the expected amount of the recycled materials by 2035, taking into account a number of parameters affecting future battery material flows. While focusing on cobalt, nickel, lithium, and manganese, the results indicate that the global cobalt demand can be satisfied from secondary sources by the early 2030s in three out of four different technology forecast scenarios. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis highlights the amount of waste occurring during battery production and battery lifetime as the main drivers for secondary-material availability by 2035.