MEDFATE 2.9.3: a trait-enabled model to simulate Mediterranean forest function and dynamics at regional scales

Abstract

Regional-level applications of dynamic vegetation models are challenging because they need to accommodate the variation in plant functional diversity, which requires moving away from broadly defined functional types. Different approaches have been adopted in the last years to incorporate a trait-based perspective into modeling exercises. A common parametrization strategy involves using trait data to represent functional variation between individuals while discarding taxonomic identity. However, this strategy ignores the phylogenetic signal of trait variation and cannot be employed when predictions for specific taxa are needed, such as in applications to inform forest management planning. An alternative strategy involves adapting the taxonomic resolution of model entities to that of the data source employed for large-scale initialization and estimating functional parameters from available plant trait databases, adopting diverse solutions for missing data and non-observable parameters. Here we report the advantages and limitations of this second strategy according to our experience in the development of MEDFATE (version 2.9.3), a novel cohort-based and trait-enabled model of forest dynamics, for its application over a region in the western Mediterranean Basin. First, 217 taxonomic entities were defined according to woody species codes of the Spanish National Forest Inventory. While forest inventory records were used to obtain some empirical parameter estimates, a large proportion of physiological, morphological, and anatomical parameters were matched to measured plant traits, with estimates extracted from multiple databases and averaged at the required taxonomic level. Estimates for non-observable key parameters were obtained using meta-modeling and calibration exercises. Missing values were addressed using imputation procedures based on trait covariation, taxonomic averages or both. The model properly simulated observed historical changes in basal area, with a performance similar to an empirical model trained for the same region. While strong efforts are still required to parameterize trait-enabled models for multiple taxa, and to incorporate intra-specific trait variability, estimation procedures such as those presented here can be progressively refined, transferred to other regions or models and iterated following data source changes by employing automated workflows. We advocate for the adoption of trait-enabled and population-structured models for regional-level projections of forest function and dynamics.