Inflammatory blood cells and ratios at remission for psychosis relapse prediction: A three-year follow-up of a cohort of first episodes of schizophrenia

Abstract

Background: The clinical course following a first episode of schizophrenia (FES) is often characterized by recurrent relapses, resulting in unfavorable clinical and functional outcomes. Inflammatory dysregulation has been implicated in relapse risk; however, the predictive value of inflammatory blood cells in clinically remitted patients after a FES has not been previously explored. Methods: In this study, we closely monitored 111 patients in remission after a FES until relapse or a three-year follow-up endpoint. The participants were recruited from the multicenter 2EPS Project. Data on inflammatory blood cells and ratios were collected at baseline and at the time of relapse or after three years of follow-up. Results: Monocyte counts (OR = 1.91; 95 % CI = 1.07-3.18; p = 0.009) and basophil counts (OR = 1.09; 95 % CI = 1.01-1.12; p = 0.005) at baseline were associated with an increased risk of relapse, while the platelet-lymphocyte ratio (OR = 0.98; 95 % CI = 0.97-0.99; p = 0.019) was identified as a protective factor. However, after adjusting for cannabis and tobacco use during the follow-up, only monocyte counts (OR = 1.73; 95 % CI = 1.03-2.29; p = 0.027) and basophil counts (OR = 1.08; 95 % CI = 1.01-1.14; p = 0.008) remained statistically significant. ROC curve analysis indicated that the optimal cut-off values for discriminating relapsers were 0.52 × 10^9/L (AUC: 0.66) for monocytes and 0.025 × 10^9/L (AUC: 0.75) for basophils. When considering baseline inflammatory levels, no significant differences were observed in the inflammatory biomarkers at the endpoint between relapsers and non-relapsers. Conclusion: This study provides evidence that higher monocyte and basophil counts measured at remission after a FES are associated with an increased risk of relapse during a three-year follow-up period.