Systemic Political Risk

Abstract

Political risk impacts firm-level risk, influencing funding costs, cash holdings, and capital structure choices. Traditional approaches to political risk rely on aggregate indicators, like economic policy uncertainty proxies. In contrast, our study examines how political risk spreads among individual US firms and sectors using network analysis and systemic risk indicators. This approach identifies crucial and vulnerable actors, not possible with aggregate proxies. We demonstrate the spread of political risk among firms and establish the utility of monitoring neighboring firms to predict potential political risk for a specific firm. Thus, firm-level political risk is not just an idiosyncratic concern but also a systemic one. Additionally, we find that the most central political risk actors are the most sensitive to economic cycles.