Climate change effects on flood Risk at wastewater treatment plants: a facility-scale assessment

Abstract

Climate change is expected to modify precipitation patterns and increase flood hazard in urban areas, potentially affecting critical infrastructures such as wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), often located in flood-prone zones. This study assesses the impacts of climate-driven changes in extreme rainfall on flood hazard, pedestrian safety, and tangible physical damage at WWTPs in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, Spain. Twenty-four future flood scenarios are defined using CMIP6-based downscaled climate projections (SSP126 and SSP585), two time horizons (2041–2070 and 2071–2100), and different climate model percentiles. Climate Change Coefficients derived from updated Intensity–Duration–Frequency curves are applied to hydrodynamic simulations to evaluate flooded and high-hazard areas for plant workers, as well as direct economic damage at the Montcada i Reixac WWTP, used as a case study. Results indicate limited changes under SSP126, while SSP585 leads to systematic increases in hazard extent and damage, particularly for long-term projections (2071–2100) and extreme percentiles (90th). A large dispersion among climate models is also observed, especially for extraordinary flood events. Finally, a site-specific nature-based adaptation measure targeting frequent floods is proposed, demonstrating the potential of integrated assessments to support sustainable adaptation planning and to reduce the Expected Annual Damage in future climate conditions by 93%.

The ICARIA project (Improving Climate Resilience of Critical Assets) is funded by the European Commission through the Horizon Europe Programme, Grant Number 101093806. https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101093806 (accessed on 17 March 2026). G.F. acknowledges the financial support provided by the Agència de Gestió d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca (https://agaur.gencat.cat/en/inici (accessed on 17 March 2026)) through the Industrial Doctorate Plan of the Secretariat for Universities and Research Department of Business and Knowledge of the Government of Catalonia, under the Grant DI 085-2024.

9 - Indústria, Innovació i Infraestructura

6 - Aigua Neta i Sanejament

Postprint (published version)