Forecasting energy demand in quicklime manufacturing: a data-driven approach

Abstract

This study presents a deep learning-based framework for forecasting energy demand in a quicklime production company, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and enable data-driven decision-making for industrial scalability. Using one year of real electricity consumption data, the methodology integrates temporal and operational variables—such as load profile, active power, shift indicators, and production-related proxies—to capture the dynamics of energy usage throughout the manufacturing process. Several neural network architectures, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Conv1D models, were trained and compared to predict short-term power demand with 10-min resolution. Among these, the GRU model achieved the highest predictive accuracy, with a best performance of RMSE = 2.18 kW, MAE = 0.49 kW, and SMAPE = 3.64% on the test set. The resulting forecasts support cost-efficient scheduling under time-of-use tariffs and provide valuable insights for infrastructure planning, capacity management, and sustainability optimization in energy-intensive industries.

Colombian Ministry of Science Innovation and Technology (MINISTERIO DE CIENCIA, TECNOLOGÌA E INNOVACIÓN-Minciencias) with its grant 934 “Convocatoria de estancias posdoctorales orientadas por misiones”. This research is also funded by FONDO FRANCISCO JOSÉ DE CALDAS.

Peer Reviewed

Postprint (published version)