Modelling interactions and feedback mechanisms in land use systems

Abstract

Land use change (LUC) is often a complex process. In such a process land use systems can show non-linear behaviours caused by mechanisms such as interactions between agents and feedbacks from higher system level. Land use systems might be very sensitive to such non-linearity, for instance in the form of tipping points, which lead them to a different land use regime. Many models deal with the causes and consequences of LUC but few focus on the non-linear process in land use systems. Thus there is a need for an explicit treatment of interactions and feedback mechanisms in LUC models to better understand the behaviour of land use systems. Two primary mechanisms are implemented with an agent-based model (ABM) to capture 1) the social interaction between land use decision makers (farmers) and 2) the positive feedback mechanism in agricultural production, with each applied to a case study showing how such mechanism can give rise to non-linear changes in land use systems. Due to a lack of focus on feedbacks in LUC-ABMs, we propose a framework to approach feedback mechanisms in land use systems in a structured way.