dc.contributor.author |
Matas i Prat, Anna |
dc.contributor.author |
Raymond Bara, José Luis |
dc.contributor.author |
Ruiz, Adriana |
dc.contributor.author |
Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP) |
dc.date |
2009 |
dc.identifier |
https://ddd.uab.cat/record/69589 |
dc.identifier |
urn:oai:ddd.uab.cat:69589 |
dc.format |
application/pdf |
dc.language |
eng |
dc.publisher |
Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP) |
dc.relation |
Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP). Documents de treball de la Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP) ; |
dc.rights |
open access |
dc.rights |
Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús de Creative Commons, amb la qual es permet copiar, distribuir i comunicar públicament l'obra sempre que se'n citin l'autor original, la universitat i la xarxa i no se'n faci cap ús comercial ni obra derivada, tal com queda estipulat en la llicència d'ús |
dc.rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ |
dc.subject |
Planificació del transport |
dc.subject |
Enginyeria del trànsit |
dc.title |
Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints |
dc.type |
Working paper |
dc.description.abstract |
Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires. |