Title:
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Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints
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Author:
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Matas i Prat, Anna; Raymond Bara, José Luis; Ruiz, Adriana; Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP)
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Abstract:
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Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires. |
Subject(s):
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-Planificació del transport -Enginyeria del trànsit |
Rights:
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open access
Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús de Creative Commons, amb la qual es permet copiar, distribuir i comunicar públicament l'obra sempre que se'n citin l'autor original, la universitat i la xarxa i no se'n faci cap ús comercial ni obra derivada, tal com queda estipulat en la llicència d'ús
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ |
Document type:
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Working paper |
Published by:
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Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP)
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Share:
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Uri:
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https://ddd.uab.cat/record/69589
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