Ethnic alignment in divided regions: individual and contextual factors

Abstract

The literature on sub-state nationalisms in Western democracies usually understands ethnicity as a defining feature of regional parties advocating for group and/or territorial recognition. However, the role of ethnicity for state-wide parties competing in regional elections has not received the same attention. Using observational data at the census section level for the Basque election of 2016, this paper shows how state-wide parties can be even more affected by ethnic alignment than regional parties. A key element presented here is the role of contextual effects that generate intra-group variations, resulting in different patterns of electoral boundaries. State-wide parties have an uneven distribution of vote indicating the difficulty of reaching wide segments of the electorate, a pattern that is only broken to some extent by the emergence of new political parties. On the other hand, some regional parties can be more successful both in non-core areas and reaching non-core voters in nationalist strongholds.