Single Nucleotide Polymorphism relevance learning with Random Forests for Type 2 diabetes risk prediction Type 2 diabetes Random Forest Feature learning Predictive model Gini importance

Abstract

The use of artificial intelligence techniques to find out which Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) promote the development of a disease is one of the features of medical research, as such techniques may potentially aid early diagnosis and help in the prescription of preventive measures. In particular, the aim is to help physicians to identify the relevant SNPs related to Type 2 diabetes, and to build a decision-support tool for risk prediction. Methods: We use the Random Forest (RF) technique in order to search for the most important attributes (SNPs) related to diabetes, giving a weight (degree of importance), ranging between 0 and 1, to each attribute. Support Vector Machines and Logistic Regression have also been used since they are two other machine learning techniques that are well-established in the health community. Their performance has been compared to that achieved by RF. Furthermore, the relevance of the attributes obtained through the use of RF has then been used to perform predictions with k-Nearest Neighbour method weighting attributes in the similarity measure according to the relevance of the attributes with RF. Results: Testing is performed on a set of 677 subjects. RF is able to handle the complexity of features' interactions, overfitting, and unknown attribute values, providing the SNPs' relevance with an up to 0.89 area under the ROC curve in terms of risk prediction. RF outperforms all the other tested machine learning techniques in terms of prediction accuracy, and in terms of the stability of the estimated relevance of the attributes. Conclusions: The Random Forest is a useful method for learning predictive models and the relevance of SNPs without any underlying assumption

This work was supported by the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [grant number 689810, PEPPER]; the University of Girona [grant number MPCUdG2016]; and the Spanish MINECO [grant number DPI2013-47450-C21-R].