dc.contributor.author
Dassel, Moritz
dc.contributor.author
Meshesha, Aaron
dc.contributor.author
Northcott, Benjamin
dc.contributor.author
Rennert, Vitus
dc.date.accessioned
2026-02-25T20:01:33Z
dc.date.available
2026-02-25T20:01:33Z
dc.date.issued
2026-02-24T12:42:38Z
dc.date.issued
2026-02-24T12:42:38Z
dc.date.issued
2025-06-06
dc.identifier
https://hdl.handle.net/10230/72653
dc.identifier.uri
https://hdl.handle.net/10230/72653
dc.description.abstract
Treball fi de màster de: Master's Degree in Specialized Economic Analysis: International Trade, Finance and Development Program. Curs 2024-2025
dc.description.abstract
Tutors: Fernando Broner i Geert Mesters
dc.description.abstract
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, over one million Ukrainian refugees legally entered Poland, equivalent to around 3% of the country's resident population. Using administrative refugee counts and county-level labor market data from 2021 to 2024, we implement a long first differences empirical design with a Bartik shiftshare instrumental variable. In line with previous studies, we find that a one percentage point increase in the migrant share raises the native unemployment rate by 0.17 - 0.19 percentage points but leaves average wages unaffected. Effects are primarily concentrated among young, highly educated polish women, mirroring the composition of the refugee shock.
dc.description.abstract
Tras la invasión rusa de Ucrania en 2022, más de un millón de refugiados entraron legalmente en Polonia, aproximadamente el 3% de su población. Utilizando datos administrativos de refugiados y del mercado laboral municipal de 2021 a 2024, hemos implementado un diseño empírico de primeras diferencias a largo plazo con una variable instrumental Bartik. Coincidiendo con estudios previos sobre migración europea, al aumentar un punto porcentual la proporción de migrantes se eleva la tasa de desempleo 0,17-0,19 puntos, sin repercutir en la media salarial. El principal impacto recae sobre las mujeres polacas jóvenes con estudios, fiel reflejo del perfil migratorio.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.rights
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License
dc.rights
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject
Treball de fi de màster – Curs 2024-2025
dc.subject
Mercados laborales
dc.title
The effects of forced migration on local labor markets: evidence from Ukrainian migration to Poland
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
