The effects of forced migration on local labor markets: evidence from Ukrainian migration to Poland

Abstract

Treball fi de màster de: Master's Degree in Specialized Economic Analysis: International Trade, Finance and Development Program. Curs 2024-2025

Tutors: Fernando Broner i Geert Mesters

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, over one million Ukrainian refugees legally entered Poland, equivalent to around 3% of the country's resident population. Using administrative refugee counts and county-level labor market data from 2021 to 2024, we implement a long first differences empirical design with a Bartik shiftshare instrumental variable. In line with previous studies, we find that a one percentage point increase in the migrant share raises the native unemployment rate by 0.17 - 0.19 percentage points but leaves average wages unaffected. Effects are primarily concentrated among young, highly educated polish women, mirroring the composition of the refugee shock.

Tras la invasión rusa de Ucrania en 2022, más de un millón de refugiados entraron legalmente en Polonia, aproximadamente el 3% de su población. Utilizando datos administrativos de refugiados y del mercado laboral municipal de 2021 a 2024, hemos implementado un diseño empírico de primeras diferencias a largo plazo con una variable instrumental Bartik. Coincidiendo con estudios previos sobre migración europea, al aumentar un punto porcentual la proporción de migrantes se eleva la tasa de desempleo 0,17-0,19 puntos, sin repercutir en la media salarial. El principal impacto recae sobre las mujeres polacas jóvenes con estudios, fiel reflejo del perfil migratorio.