Abstract:
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The concept of carbon budgets has become a key and effective tool in
terms of communicating the existing environmental challenge and monitoring environmental policy, in the context of the Paris agreement. In this
sense, the literature has addressed different mechanisms to distribute them
by countries/groups according to reasonable distribution principles, among
which fairness and efficiency play an essential role. Given the problem of
agreeing on indicators by countries, the paper proposes the use of claims
models as a basis for this distribution, which avoid using indicators and
only have to agree on elements defining the distribution rules. In this sense
and based on a reference of the available global Carbon Budget (Mercator)
for 2018-2050, and the CO2 forecasts taken from the intermediate scenario
SSP2-45 (Middle of the road) considered by the IPCC (2021), different distribution rules are addressed proposed by the literature (equality, proportional, and α-min) and are evaluated for the available groups of countries.
Two relevant exercises are proposed beyond the initial distribution based on the previous theoretical rules: first, evaluate the cost of these distributions
in terms of the welfare of each group (in particular, in terms of GDP); and
two, use the GDP costs themselves to propose new distribution rules that
are cost-efficient. The results imply having not only a global cost-efficient
distribution proposal but also an annual path. We understand that the
work is useful not only in terms of its methodological proposal but also as
an alternative guide that structures future distribution policies.
Keywords: allocation methods; claims; carbon budgets; climate change
mitigation; equity
JEL classification: D7; H4; H8; Q58; Q54 |