BACKGROUND: Unexpected death of a loved one (UD) is the most commonly reported traumatic experience in cross-national surveys. However, much remains to be learned about posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after this experience. The WHO World Mental Health (WMH) survey initiative provides a unique opportunity to address these issues. METHODS: Data from 19 WMH surveys (n = 78,023; 70.1% weighted response rate) were collated. Potential predictors of PTSD (respondent sociodemographics, characteristics of the death, history of prior trauma exposure, history of prior mental disorders) after a representative sample of UDs were examined using logistic regression. Simulation was used to estimate overall model strength in targeting individuals at highest PTSD risk. RESULTS: PTSD prevalence after UD averaged 5.2% across surveys and did not differ significantly between high-income and low-middle income countries. Significant multivariate predictors included the deceased being a spouse or child, the respondent being female and believing they could have done something to prevent the death, prior trauma exposure, and history of prior mental disorders. The final model was strongly predictive of PTSD, with the 5% of respondents having highest estimated risk including 30.6% of all cases of PTSD. Positive predictive value (i.e., the proportion of high-risk individuals who actually developed PTSD) among the 5% of respondents with highest predicted risk was 25.3%. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence and meaningful risk of PTSD make UD a major public health issue. This study provides novel insights into predictors of PTSD after this experience and suggests that screening assessments might be useful in identifying high-risk individuals for preventive interventions.

The World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative is supported by the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH; R01 MH070884 and R01 MH093612-01), the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Pfizer Foundation, the US Public Health Service (R13-MH066849, R01-MH069864, and R01 DA016558) and the Fogarty International Center (FIRCA R03- TW006481). The São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey is supported by the State of São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) Thematic Project grant 03/00204-3. The ESEMeD project is funded by the European Commission (contracts QLG5-1999-01042; SANCO 2004123, and EAHC 20081308; the Piedmont Region [Italy]), Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain (FIS 00/0028), Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología, Spain (SAF 2000-158-CE), Departament de Salut, Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain and Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBER CB06/02/0046, RETICS RD06/0011 REM-TAP) . The World Mental Health Japan (WMHJ) survey is supported by the Grant for Research on Psychiatric and Neurological Diseases and Mental Health (H13-SHOGAI-023, H14-TOKUBETSU026, H16-KOKORO-013) from the Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. The Lebanese Evaluation of the Burden of Ailments and Needs of the Nation (L.E.B.A.N.O.N.) is supported by the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health and the WHO (Lebanon), National Institute of Health/Fogarty International Center (R03 TW006481-01). The South Africa Stress and Health Study (SASH) is supported by the US National Institute of Mental Health (R01-MH059575). The Ukraine Comorbid Mental Disorders during Periods of Social Disruption (CMDPSD) study is funded by the US National Institute of Mental Health (RO1-MH61905). The US National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R) is supported by the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH; U01-MH60220) with supplemental support from the National Institute of Drug Abuse (NIDA), the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF; grant 044708), and the John W. Alden Trust