Abstract:
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Glyptostrobus pensilis (Cupressaceae) is the only surviving species of the genus Glypto strobus. Although the species is widely cultivated throughout China, in the wild it only
occurs as small stands in southeastern China, central Laos, and southern Vietnam. How‑
ever, its low genetic variability, lack of recruitment, and the progressive destruction of its
habitat caused by humans, have meant that the populations are showing a clear declining
trend and the species as a whole is threatened. Ecological niche modeling is used here to
study the present potential distribution, as well as in the future (2061–2080) using several
global circulation models under two of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 126 and
SSP 585) that are being used to produce the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. The current
potential area of G. pensilis is of 1,452,481 km2
with the areas of greatest probability of
presence located in southeastern China. This potential area is reduced for the future accord‑
ing to most models, with greater losses for the SSP 585 scenario. Between 6.9 and 31.3%
of all wild populations of G. pensilis would be outside potential areas (including the Lao
populations, which harbor the highest levels of genetic variability). Conservation measures
include the expansion of the current network of protected areas (since over 90% of wild
populations do not occur within them), the development of propagation techniques, and
the carrying out of translocation activities that should require international collaboration
among the countries in which the species is found. With the current knowledge, we have
reassessed the threat status of the species under the IUCN criteria, downgrading it from CR
to EN both for China and at global level. |