A social-ecological-technological vulnerability approach for assessing urban hydrological risks

Abstract

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M

In the context of urban population growth and climate change, and ever greater number of people are anticipated to face severe risks associated with extreme climate events; major ones are due to stormwater-related hazards. This study offers novel understanding of the complex nature of water-related risks in urban geographies by employing a Social-Ecological-Technological Systems (SETS) framework to assess vulnerabilities. Hydrology-informed urban risk index was developed, quantifying seventeen indicators from historical and modeled data on sewer overflow and flood events. The spatially explicit SETS-based approach identifies high-risk communities and hotspots where multiple vulnerabilities intersect and can serve as a valuable tool for guiding policy and decision-making to support more resilient urban futures. Our findings reveal that social vulnerability plays a critical role in determining the overall risk (R = 0.4), with the greatest impacts imposed on socially vulnerable communities. However, insights from the ecological (R = 0.2) and technological (R = 0.1) domains provide essential guidance for future risk reduction strategies-such as upgrading outdated sewer infrastructure and exploring green space potential for run-off mitigation. The framework proposed is generalizable to other cities facing similar environmental challenges, highlighting its potential as a foundational tool for policymaking to reduce risks associated with extreme climate events.