Economic sustainability in relation to demographic decline of celtic agglomerations in central europe : multiple-scenario approach

Abstract

Our research attempts to discuss the applicability of social simulation as a tool for exploration the late Iron Age society in both the fortified agglomerations known as the oppida and open settlements within their surroundings, especially from the point of view of the population change and related sustainability of economic production. This paper presents a model of the resilience of the food production system under the dynamically changing (increasing and/or decreasing) population. The models represent a multiple-scenario approach: the scenarios describe different aspects of the oppida occupation (population dynamics in terms of its increase or decrease, food production strategies, landscape changes or economic interactions between oppida and their hinterlands). Within a modelling process different methods are integrated: (1) cellular automata (for the representation of landscape and its changes), (2) system dynamics (population dynamics, economic strategies and ecological and societal rules), and (3) the agentbased component (livestock management).