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Title:
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Assessing climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Mediterranean areas
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Author:
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Lozano, Olga M.; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena Urdíroz, Fermín J.; Monteiro, Antonio T.; Finney, Mark A.; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella
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Notes:
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We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure
in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model
for the period 1981–2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were
performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture,
wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods
(1981–2010, 2011–2040, and 2041–2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very
slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased
significantly in the second future period (2041–2070), especially in the southern portion
of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of
the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe
of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential
impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can
provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation
activities.
This work was partially funded by the FUME Project (FP7/2007–2013, Grant Agreement 243888), by the GEMINA Project - MIUR/MATTM n. 232/2011, and by the Project “Modeling approach to evaluate fire risk and mitigation planning actions” (P.O.R. SARDEGNA F.S.E. 2007-2013, Asse IV Capitale umano, Linea di Attivit `a l.3.1). We are grateful to the Join Research Centre for providing the fire database. |
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Subject(s):
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-Burn probability
-Climate change
-Fire exposure
-Mediterranean areas |
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Rights:
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(c) Wiley, 2016
(c) Society for Risk Analysis, 2016
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
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Document type:
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article
publishedVersion |
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Published by:
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Wiley
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Share:
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