Spatial Analysis of Climate Risk in the West Bank, Palestine

Abstract

In the developing countries (e.g., Palestine) a reliable assessment of climate vulnerability, exposure, and consequently risk is a key step in developing successful adaptation and mitigation plans. This study aims to examine the spatial distribution of climate risk across the different governorates of the West Bank (Palestine) by assessing climate-risk exposure. A GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis approach was employed to estimate climate exposure across the West Bank governorates. Additionally, sensitivity analysis is used to explore the impact of indicator weight on the final climate-risk map. The climate-risk map was subsequently developed based on the exposure map, classifying the governorates into five risk categories: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. This analysis revealed that 42% of the West Bank population resides in areas classified as having high to very high climate exposure, which corresponds to approximately 39% of the total land area. Conversely, about 21% of the West Bank area is categorized under low to very low risk conditions. By measuring risk based on this exposure, and considering vulnerability, it was determined that 82% of the population lives within areas identified as high to very high zones, underscoring the significant climate risk of populated regions. This study offers the first spatially explicit climate-risk assessment for the West Bank, applying a widely accepted approach that integrates vulnerability and exposure components. The results provide critical insights to inform targeted adaptation and mitigation efforts, supporting decision-makers in enhancing climate resilience across the region.

The authors acknowledge the support from the Department of Research and Universities of the Generalitat de Catalunya through Consolidated Research Groups (ICRA-ENV 2021 SGR 01282), as well as from the CERCA program