dc.contributor.author
Jiménez, Gabriel
dc.contributor.author
Kuvshinov, Dmitry
dc.contributor.author
Peydró, José-Luis
dc.contributor.author
Richter, Björn
dc.date.accessioned
2026-02-25T07:00:05Z
dc.date.available
2026-02-25T07:00:05Z
dc.date.issued
2026-02-24T17:11:36Z
dc.date.issued
2026-02-24T17:11:36Z
dc.date.issued
2026-02-24T17:11:35Z
dc.identifier
Jiménez G, Kuvshinov D, Peydró JL, Richter B. Monetary policy, inflation, and crises: evidence from history and administrative data. J Finance. 2026 Jan 27. DOI: 10.1111/jofi.70023
dc.identifier
https://hdl.handle.net/10230/72659
dc.identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70023
dc.identifier.uri
https://hdl.handle.net/10230/72659
dc.description.abstract
Data de publicació electrònica: 27-01-2026
dc.description.abstract
We show that a U-shaped monetary rate path increases banking crisis risk, via credit and asset price cycles, analyzing 17 countries over 150 years. Rate hikes (raw or instrumented) increase crisis risk, but only if preceded by prolonged cuts. These patterns are unique to banking crises, unlike noncrisis recessions. Regarding the mechanism, prolonged cuts raise the likelihood of large credit and asset price booms, consistent with higher credit supply and risk-taking. Subsequent hikes strongly reduce credit and asset prices, and increase banks' realized credit risk, rather than interest rate risk. We find consistent results in administrative loan-level data for Spain.
dc.description.abstract
This work was supported by the Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI) through the Severo Ochoa Programme for Centres of Excellence in R & D (Barcelona School of Economics CEX2019-000915-S), and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and the State Research Agency grant PID2020-118541GBI00 and the Ramon y Cajal fellowship (RYC2021-033982-I and RYC2022-038033-I).
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.relation
Journal of Finance. 2026 Jan 27
dc.relation
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/2PE/PID2020-118541GBI00
dc.rights
© 2026 The Author(s). The Journal of Finance published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Finance Association. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
dc.rights
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject
Política monetària
dc.subject
Crisis financeres
dc.title
Monetary policy, inflation, and crises: evidence from history and administrative data
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
