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Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis
Travesset Baro, Oriol; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.; Jover Comas, Eric; Rosas Casals, Martí
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Màquines i Motors Tèrmics; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. SUMMLab - Laboratori de Mesura i Modelització de la Sostenibilitat
This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies
Peer Reviewed
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies::Gestió de l'energia
Transportation -- Energy consumption -- Andorra
Automobiles -- Fuel consumption -- Mathematical models
Transport
Energy demand
Andorra
Private car fleet
Sensitivity analysis
Scenario analysis
Transport -- Consum d'energia -- Andorra
Automòbils -- Consum de combustible -- Models matemàtics
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion
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