2026-04-13T09:55:33Zhttps://recercat.cat/oai/requestoai:recercat.cat:2445/2230232025-12-04T22:59:02Zcom_2072_1057col_2072_478771col_2072_478911col_2072_478917
RECERCAT
author
Guirola-Abenza, Luis M.
author
Rivero, Gonzalo
2025-09-08T11:24:10Z2025-09-08T11:24:10Z2025
We study how political polarization impacts trust in the government and independent institutions. We gather microdata from 27 countries over three decades and identify 142 government changes. For each of these events, we run a difference in differences design comparing left and right-wing supporters to identify the effect on trust caused by a particular party controlling the executive. The estimated effect ranges from 0 to 2.1 standard deviations, and is systematically larger when party polarization is stronger– this variable alone explains 72% of the variation. The effect propagates onto trust in the European Central Bank and other institutions outside government control. Examining the mechanism, we find evidence consistent with a) lack of knowledge about independence and b) that elections under high polarization are high-stakes events affecting multiple dimensions, including subjective wellbeing, and trust toward the political system as a whole.
cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Guirola-Abenza et al., 2025 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Polarització (Ciències socials)
Institucions polítiques
Pensament polític
Polarization (Social sciences)
Comparative government
Political thought
The shadow of polarization is long: trust in the government and independent institutions after 142 government changes
info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper