2026-04-17T04:31:44Zhttps://recercat.cat/oai/request

oai:recercat.cat:2445/2208072025-12-06T01:55:19Zcom_2072_1057col_2072_478809col_2072_478917

00925njm 22002777a 4500 dc Basco, Sergi author Schäfer-i-Paradís, Maximilian author 2025-05-05T11:11:24Z 2025-05-05T11:11:24Z 2025-06-01 2025-05-05T11:11:24Z The recent house price appreciation in the United States has renewed the interest in determining the existence of ”bubbles”. We provide a model-free test of rational bubbles and apply it to the U.S. housing market. We derive that there exists a bubble when an increase in the current account deficit raises house prices and they are exacerbated in housing supply inelastic municipalities. We apply this test using metropolitan statistical area data between 1990 and 2022. We consider three suspect episodes: (i) 1996-2000, (ii) 2002- 2006 and (ii) 2020-22. Our findings are consistent with the existence of only one housing bubble episode (2002-06). A strength of this test is that it can be easily applied in real time in any country. Negocis immobiliaris Habitatge Bombolla immobiliària Economia de mercat Real estate business Housing Real estate bubble Market economy A model-free test of rational bubbles: an application to the US housing market