2026-04-13T07:08:14Zhttps://recercat.cat/oai/request

oai:recercat.cat:2445/2144982025-12-05T05:49:27Zcom_2072_1057col_2072_478808col_2072_478917

00925njm 22002777a 4500 dc Santolino, Miguel author 2024-07-10T10:36:03Z 2024-07-10T10:36:03Z 2023-09-28 2024-07-10T10:36:08Z Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, it is apparent that the objective variable should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models—in terms, that is, of their goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy—is often based on the logarithmic scale of the mortality rate. In this article, we examine whether the same forecast outcomes are obtained when the performance of mortality models is assessed based on the original and log scales of the mortality rate. We compare four different stochastic mortality models: the original Lee–Carter model, the Lee–Carter model with (log)normal distribution, the Lee–Carter model with Poisson distribution and the median Lee–Carter model. We show that the preferred model will depend on the scale of the objective variable, the selection criteria measure and the range of ages analysed. Anàlisi estocàstica Longevitat Mortalitat Analyse stochastique Longevity Mortality Should Selection of the Optimum Stochastic Mortality Model Be Based on the Original or the Logarithmic Scale of the Mortality Rate?