2026-04-13T02:04:18Zhttps://recercat.cat/oai/requestoai:recercat.cat:2445/1227192025-12-05T01:35:57Zcom_2072_1057col_2072_478917
RECERCAT
author
Ciaravino, Giovanna
author
García Saenz, Ariadna
author
Cabras, S.
author
Allepuz, Alberto
author
Casal, J.
author
García-Bocanegra, Ignacio
author
Koeijer, A. De
author
Gubbins, S.
author
Saez, J. L.
author
Cano Terriza, D.
author
Napp, Sebastian
2018-06-01T13:25:05Z2018-06-01T13:25:05Z2018-062018-03-07T19:00:33Z
In Spain, despite years of efforts to eradicate bovine
tuberculosis (bTB), the disease is still endemic, with some
areas of high prevalence. In this context, the surveillance and
control plans may need to be re-evaluated, and understanding the
dynamics of bTB spread within Spanish herds may help to develop
new strategies for reducing the time for detection of infected
herds and for the elimination of bTB from the herds already
infected. Here, we developed a compartmental stochastic model to
simulate bTB within-herd transmission, fed it with
epidemiological data from 22 herds (obtained from a previous
work) and carried out parameter inference using Approximate
Bayesian Computing methods We also estimated the "Within-herd
transmission potential Number" (Rh), i.e. the average number of
secondary cases generated by a single animal infected introduced
into a totally susceptible herd, considering different scenarios
depending on the frequency of controls. The median global values
obtained for the transmission parameters were: for the
transmission coefficient (beta), 0.014 newly infected animals
per infectious individual per day (i.e. 5.2 per year), for the
rate at which infected individuals become infectious (alpha),
0.01 per day (equivalent to a latent period of 97days), and for
the rate at which infected individuals become reactive to the
skin test (alpha1), 0.08 per day (equivalent to a period of
12days for an infected animal to become reactive). However, the
results also evidenced a great variability in the estimates of
those parameters (in particular beta and alpha) among the 22
herds. Considering a 6-month interval between tests, the mean Rh
was 0.23, increasing to 0.82 with an interval of 1year, and to
2.01 and 3.47 with testing intervals of 2 and 4 years,
respectively.
cc by-nc-nd (c) Elsevier, 2018 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Tuberculosi en els animals
Espanya
Tuberculosis in animals
Spain
Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis
within Spanish cattle herds
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion