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The probability of military rule in Africa, 1970-2007 Caruso, Raul Costa, Jacopo Ricciuti, Roberto Govern militar Dictadura Àfrica Military government Dictatorship Africa In this paper we empirically analyze the socio-economic determinants of the existence of military dictatorships in Africa. A recent literature in political economy analyses the relationship between the civil undemocratic government and the military as an agency problem: the civilian government needs the army to avoid internal violence, but a larger army reduces the opportunity-cost for the military to run a coup d’état and seize power. These papers derive three main causes of military rule: income inequality, ethnic fractionalization, and external threat. We empirically analyze these issues by estimating the probability that a country experiences a military rule. We consider 48 African countries over the period 1970-2007. 2017-10-13T11:42:58Z 2017-10-13T11:42:58Z 2011 info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper Reproducció del document publicat a: http://www.ieb.ub.edu/2012022157/ieb/ultimes-publicacions IEB Working Paper 2011/26 [WP E-IEB11/26] cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Caruso et al., 2011 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Institut d’Economia de Barcelona IEB (Institut d’Economia de Barcelona) – Working Papers