2026-04-18T08:28:10Zhttps://recercat.cat/oai/request

oai:recercat.cat:2117/3862292026-02-06T03:24:47Zcom_2072_1033col_2072_452950

Generation of proxy GIM-TEC for extreme storms before the Era of GNSS observations Gulyaeva, Tamara L. Shubin, Valentin Haralambous, Haris Hernández Pajares, Manuel Stanislawska, Iwona Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Matemàtiques Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. IonSAT - Grup de determinació Ionosfèrica i navegació per SAtèl·lit i sistemes Terrestres Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Matemàtica aplicada a les ciències Geophysics Geofísica Classificació AMS::86 Geophysics For the first time, we reconstructed global distribution of both the total electron content disturbance W index and TEC values for eight extreme storms (Dst < -250 nT) occurred before the epoch of GNSS observations in solar cycle 22. We created a model based on superposed epoch analysis of the training set of GIM-W maps of nine SC23 extreme storms. Global GIM-W index maps are calculated from 15-min UPC GIM-TEC (UQRG) as the logarithmic deviation of instantaneous TEC from the monthly median GIMMTEC empirical model. We introduced the storm phase metrics for main and recovery phases of the positive ionosphere disturbance (the WU-index), the negative disturbance (the WL-index) and the ring current (the Dst-index). The probabilistic forecasting model (Pmodel) for SC22 GIM-Wx maps is developed based on GIM-W maps of the SC23 training set. The storm phase distribution Fx for the eight SC22 extreme storms is calculated from the proxy time shift (lag) of peak WUmax and WLmin relative to Dstmin. Proxy GIM-TECx maps are calculated by adjusting the GIM-MTEC median to the GIM-Wx prediction. Validation of the technique based on data of UPC and JPL for four intense ionospheric storms showed a root-mean-square error less than 3 TECU. The proposed technique can be applied for both the past and future forecasting of GIM-W index and GIM-TEC maps. Peer Reviewed Postprint (published version) 2022-01 Article Gulyaeva, T. [et al.]. Generation of proxy GIM-TEC for extreme storms before the Era of GNSS observations. "Journal of geophysical research. Space physics", 2022, vol. 127, núm. 1. 2169-9380 https://hdl.handle.net/2117/386229 10.1029/2021JA029846 eng https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2021JA029846 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es Open Access Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional application/pdf John Wiley & sons