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oai:recercat.cat:2117/1039202026-01-30T07:49:01Zcom_2072_1033col_2072_452950

Multivariate statistical modelling of future marine storms Lin Ye, Jue García León, Manuel Gracia García, Vicente Ortego Martínez, María Isabel Lionello, Piero Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. LIM/UPC - Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. COSDA-UPC - COmpositional and Spatial Data Analysis Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica, marítima i sanitària::Ports i costes Storms--Forecasting Storms--Statistical methods Wave storm Catalan Coast Hierarchical Archimedean copula Generalized Pareto distribution Non-stationarity Generalized additive model Tempestes Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two aspects have been here addressed through generalized Pareto distributions and hierarchical Archimedean copulas. A non-stationary model has been used to highlight the relationship between these extreme events and non-stationary climate. It has been applied to a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Climate-Change scenario, for a fetch-limited environment (Catalan Coast). In the non-stationary model, all considered variables decrease in time, except for storm-duration at the northern part of the Catalan Coast. The joint distribution of storm variables presents cyclical fluctuations, with a stronger influence of climate dynamics than of climate itself. Peer Reviewed Postprint (author's final draft) 2017-04 Article Lin Ye, J., Garcia, M., Gracia, V., Ortego, M.I., Piero Lionello, Sanchez-Arcilla, A. Multivariate statistical modelling of future marine storms. "Applied ocean research", Abril 2017, vol. 65, p. 192-205. 0141-1187 https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.05727 https://hdl.handle.net/2117/103920 10.1016/j.apor.2017.04.009 eng http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141118717300743 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/730030/EU/Copernicus Evolution and Aplications with Sentinel Enhancements and Land Effluents for Shores and Seas/CEASELESS ceaseless http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ Open Access Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain 14 p. application/pdf