2026-04-14T06:16:16Zhttps://recercat.cat/oai/request

oai:recercat.cat:2072/4678502026-03-28T08:37:00Zcom_2072_98col_2072_378192

00925njm 22002777a 4500 dc Arenas, Alex author Garijo, Antoni author Gómez, Sergio author Villadelprat Yagüe, Jordi author 2023 Altres ajuts: Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Spain (2019PFR-URV-B2-41); ICREA Academia The dynamics of many epidemic compartmental models for infectious diseases that spread in a single host population present a second-order phase transition. This transition occurs as a function of the infectivity parameter, from the absence of infected individuals to an endemic state. Here, we study this transition, from the perspective of dynamical systems, for a discrete-time compartmental epidemic model known as Microscopic Markov Chain Approach, whose applicability for forecasting future scenarios of epidemic spreading has been proved very useful during the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that there is an endemic state which is stable and a global attractor and that its existence is a consequence of a transcritical bifurcation. This mathematical analysis grounds the results of the model in practical applications. Bifurcation analysis of the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach to contact-based epidemic spreading in networks