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oai:recercat.cat:20.500.12327/20632025-10-22T11:05:44Zcom_2072_4428com_2072_4427col_2072_487898

Climate service driven adaptation may alleviate the impacts of climate change in agriculture Toreti, Andrea Bassu, Simona Asseng, Senthold Zampieri, Matteo Ceglar, Andrej Royo, Conxita Producció Vegetal Cultius Extensius Sostenibles 631 633 Building a resilient and sustainable agricultural sector requires the development and implementation of tailored climate change adaptation strategies. By focusing on durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) in the Euro-Mediterranean region, we estimate the benefits of adapting through seasonal cultivar-selection supported by an idealised agro-climate service based on seasonal climate forecasts. The cost of inaction in terms of mean yield losses, in 2021–2040, ranges from −7.8% to −5.8% associated with a 7% to 12% increase in interannual variability. Supporting cultivar choices at local scale may alleviate these impacts and even turn them into gains, from 0.4% to 5.3%, as soon as the performance of the agro-climate service increases. However, adaptation advantages on mean yield may come with doubling the estimated increase in the interannual yield variability. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2022-11-12 info:eu-repo/semantics/article Toreti, Andrea, Simona Bassu, Senthold Asseng, Matteo Zampieri, Andrej Ceglar, and Conxita Royo. 2022. "Climate Service Driven Adaptation May Alleviate The Impacts Of Climate Change In Agriculture". Communications Biology 5 (1). doi:10.1038/s42003-022-04189-9. 2399-3642 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12327/2063 https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-022-04189-9 eng Communications Biology EC/H2020/776467/EU/Turning climate-related information into added value for traditional MEDiterranean Grape, OLive and Durum wheat foods systems/MED-GOLD EC/H2020/817566/EU/Modelling INdividual Decisions to Support The European Policies related to agriculture/MIND STEP http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess 6 Nature