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oai:recercat.cat:11351/67882025-10-24T10:29:35Zcom_2072_378070com_2072_378040col_2072_378092

2025-10-24T10:29:35Z urn:hdl:11351/6788 Predictive performance of newer Asian hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in treated Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B Papatheodoridis, George V. Dalekos, George N. Idilman, Ramazan Sypsa, Vana Van Boemmel, Florian Esteban Mur, Rafael Buti Ferret, Maria Fetge - Càncer - Prognosi Hepatitis B - Complicacions Càncer - Propensió DISEASES::Neoplasms::Neoplasms::Neoplasms by Site::Digestive System Neoplasms::Liver Neoplasms::Carcinoma, Hepatocellular Other subheadings::Other subheadings::/diagnosis DISEASES::Digestive System Diseases::Liver Diseases::Hepatitis::Hepatitis, Viral, Human::Hepatitis B Other subheadings::Other subheadings::Other subheadings::/complications ENFERMEDADES::neoplasias::neoplasias::neoplasias por localización::neoplasias del sistema digestivo::neoplasias hepáticas::carcinoma hepatocelular Otros calificadores::Otros calificadores::/diagnóstico ENFERMEDADES::enfermedades del sistema digestivo::enfermedades hepáticas::hepatitis::hepatitis viral humana::hepatitis B Otros calificadores::Otros calificadores::Otros calificadores::/complicaciones Cirrosi; Tenofovir; Predicció Cirrosis; Tenofovir; Predicción Cirrhosis; Tenofovir; Prediction Background & Aims Recently, several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but they have not been assessed in non-Asian patients. We evaluated the predictability and comparative utility of our PAGE-B and recent Asian HCC risk scores in nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA)-treated adult Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without well-documented compensated cirrhosis but not previous diagnosis of HCC. Methods We included 1,951 patients treated with entecavir/tenofovir and followed up for a median of 7.6 years. The c-statistic was used to estimate the predictability of PAGE-B, HCC-Rescue, CAMD, mPAGE-B, and AASL score for HCC development within 5 or 10 years. The low- and high-risk group cut-offs were used for estimation of negative (NPV) and positive predictive values (PPV), respectively. Results HCC developed in 103/1,951 (5.3%) patients during the first 5 years and in another 39/1,428 (2.7%) patients between years 5 and 10. The 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative HCC rates were 3.3%, 5.9%, and 9.6%, respectively. All scores offered good 5- and 10-year HCC prediction (c-statistic: 0.78–0.82). NPVs were always >99% (99.3–100%), whereas PPV ranged between 13% and 24%. Conclusions In NA-treated Caucasian patients with CHB including compensated cirrhosis, HCC risk scores developed in NA-treated Asian patients offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler in clinical practice, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis, but the addition of albumin in mPAGE-B score does not seem to offer an advantage in patients with well compensated liver disease. Lay summary Several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were recently developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In Caucasian patients with CHB treated with oral antivirals, newer Asian HCC risk scores offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. For clinical practice, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis. 2025-10-24T10:29:35Z 2025-10-24T10:29:35Z 2022-01-13T16:44:11Z 2022-01-13T16:44:11Z 2021-06 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://hdl.handle.net/11351/6788 JHEP reports;3(3) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhepr.2021.100290 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Elsevier Scientia