2026-04-13T15:16:20Zhttps://recercat.cat/oai/request

oai:recercat.cat:11351/115492025-10-24T10:16:11Zcom_2072_378070com_2072_378040col_2072_378092

Risk prediction of major cardiac adverse events and all-cause death following covid-19 hospitalization at one year follow-up: The HOPE-2 score Becerra Muñoz, Víctor Manuel Santoro, Francesco Nuñez Gil, Ivan Javier Viana-Llamas, María C. Alfonso, Emilio Uribarri, Aitor COVID-19 (Malaltia) Avaluació del risc Cor - Malalties - Factors de risc DISEASES::Virus Diseases::RNA Virus Infections::Nidovirales Infections::Coronaviridae Infections::Coronavirus Infections ANALYTICAL, DIAGNOSTIC AND THERAPEUTIC TECHNIQUES, AND EQUIPMENT::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Statistics as Topic::Probability::Risk::Risk Assessment DISEASES::Cardiovascular Diseases ANALYTICAL, DIAGNOSTIC AND THERAPEUTIC TECHNIQUES, AND EQUIPMENT::Therapeutics::Patient Care::Hospitalization ENFERMEDADES::virosis::infecciones por virus ARN::infecciones por Nidovirales::infecciones por Coronaviridae::infecciones por Coronavirus TÉCNICAS Y EQUIPOS ANALÍTICOS, DIAGNÓSTICOS Y TERAPÉUTICOS::técnicas de investigación::métodos epidemiológicos::estadística como asunto::probabilidad::riesgo::evaluación de riesgos ENFERMEDADES::enfermedades cardiovasculares TÉCNICAS Y EQUIPOS ANALÍTICOS, DIAGNÓSTICOS Y TERAPÉUTICOS::terapéutica::asistencia al paciente::hospitalización COVID-19; Long-COVID; Prognostic score COVID-19; COVID llarg; Puntuació pronòstica COVID-19; COVID largo; Puntuación pronóstica Background Long-term consequences of COVID-19 are still partly known. Aim of the study To derive a clinical score for risk prediction of long-term major cardiac adverse events (MACE) and all cause death in COVID-19 hospitalized patients. Methods 2573 consecutive patients were enrolled in a multicenter, international registry (HOPE-2) from January 2020 to April 2021 and identified as the derivation cohort. Five hundred and twenty-six patients from the Cardio-Covid-Italy registry were considered as external validation cohort. A long-term prognostic risk score for MACE and all cause death was derived from a multivariable regression model. Results Out of 2573 patients enrolled in the HOPE-2 registry, 1481 (58 %) were male, with mean age of 60±16 years. At long-term follow-up, the overall rate of patients affected by MACE and/or all cause death was 7.8 %. After multivariable regression analysis, independent predictors of MACE and all cause death were identified. The HOPE-2 prognostic score was therefore calculated by giving: 1–4 points for age class (<65 years, 65–74, 75–84, ≥85), 3 points for history of cardiovascular disease, 1 point for hypertension, 3 points for increased troponin serum levels at admission and 2 points for acute renal failure during hospitalization. Score accuracy at ROC curve analysis was 0.79 (0.74 at external validation). Stratification into 3 risk groups (<3, 3–6, >6 points) classified patients into low, intermediate and high risk. The observed MACE and all-cause death rates were 1.9 %, 9.4 % and 26.3 % for low- intermediate and high-risk patients, respectively (Log-rank test p < 0.01). Conclusions The HOPE-2 prognostic score may be useful for long-term risk stratification in patients with previous COVID-19 hospitalization. High-risk patients may require a strict follow-up. 2025-10-24T10:16:11Z 2025-10-24T10:16:11Z 2025-10-24T10:16:11Z 2024-06-05T06:31:13Z 2024-06-05T06:31:13Z 2024-06 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://hdl.handle.net/11351/11549 European Journal of Internal Medicine;124 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejim.2024.03.002 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Elsevier Scientia