2026-04-17T06:19:37Zhttps://recercat.cat/oai/requestoai:recercat.cat:11351/115492025-10-24T10:16:11Zcom_2072_378070com_2072_378040col_2072_378092
RECERCAT
author
Becerra Muñoz, Víctor Manuel
author
Santoro, Francesco
author
Nuñez Gil, Ivan Javier
author
Viana-Llamas, María C.
author
Alfonso, Emilio
author
Uribarri, Aitor
2025-10-24T10:16:11Z
2025-10-24T10:16:11Z
2024-06-05T06:31:13Z2024-06-05T06:31:13Z2024-06
http://hdl.handle.net/11351/11549
COVID-19; Long-COVID; Prognostic scoreCOVID-19; COVID llarg; Puntuació pronòsticaCOVID-19; COVID largo; Puntuación pronósticaBackground
Long-term consequences of COVID-19 are still partly known.
Aim of the study
To derive a clinical score for risk prediction of long-term major cardiac adverse events (MACE) and all cause death in COVID-19 hospitalized patients.
Methods
2573 consecutive patients were enrolled in a multicenter, international registry (HOPE-2) from January 2020 to April 2021 and identified as the derivation cohort. Five hundred and twenty-six patients from the Cardio-Covid-Italy registry were considered as external validation cohort. A long-term prognostic risk score for MACE and all cause death was derived from a multivariable regression model.
Results
Out of 2573 patients enrolled in the HOPE-2 registry, 1481 (58 %) were male, with mean age of 60±16 years. At long-term follow-up, the overall rate of patients affected by MACE and/or all cause death was 7.8 %. After multivariable regression analysis, independent predictors of MACE and all cause death were identified. The HOPE-2 prognostic score was therefore calculated by giving: 1–4 points for age class (<65 years, 65–74, 75–84, ≥85), 3 points for history of cardiovascular disease, 1 point for hypertension, 3 points for increased troponin serum levels at admission and 2 points for acute renal failure during hospitalization. Score accuracy at ROC curve analysis was 0.79 (0.74 at external validation).
Stratification into 3 risk groups (<3, 3–6, >6 points) classified patients into low, intermediate and high risk. The observed MACE and all-cause death rates were 1.9 %, 9.4 % and 26.3 % for low- intermediate and high-risk patients, respectively (Log-rank test p < 0.01).
Conclusions
The HOPE-2 prognostic score may be useful for long-term risk stratification in patients with previous COVID-19 hospitalization. High-risk patients may require a strict follow-up.
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
COVID-19 (Malaltia)
Avaluació del risc
Cor - Malalties - Factors de risc
DISEASES::Virus Diseases::RNA Virus Infections::Nidovirales Infections::Coronaviridae Infections::Coronavirus Infections
ANALYTICAL, DIAGNOSTIC AND THERAPEUTIC TECHNIQUES, AND EQUIPMENT::Investigative Techniques::Epidemiologic Methods::Statistics as Topic::Probability::Risk::Risk Assessment
DISEASES::Cardiovascular Diseases
ANALYTICAL, DIAGNOSTIC AND THERAPEUTIC TECHNIQUES, AND EQUIPMENT::Therapeutics::Patient Care::Hospitalization
ENFERMEDADES::virosis::infecciones por virus ARN::infecciones por Nidovirales::infecciones por Coronaviridae::infecciones por Coronavirus
TÉCNICAS Y EQUIPOS ANALÍTICOS, DIAGNÓSTICOS Y TERAPÉUTICOS::técnicas de investigación::métodos epidemiológicos::estadística como asunto::probabilidad::riesgo::evaluación de riesgos
ENFERMEDADES::enfermedades cardiovasculares
TÉCNICAS Y EQUIPOS ANALÍTICOS, DIAGNÓSTICOS Y TERAPÉUTICOS::terapéutica::asistencia al paciente::hospitalización
Risk prediction of major cardiac adverse events and all-cause death following covid-19 hospitalization at one year follow-up: The HOPE-2 score
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion