2026-04-17T06:34:58Zhttps://recercat.cat/oai/request

oai:recercat.cat:10459.1/844822024-12-05T21:52:29Zcom_2072_3622col_2072_479130

00925njm 22002777a 4500 dc Clarke, Hamish author Nolan, Rachael H. author Resco de Dios, Víctor author Bradstock, Ross author Griebel, Anne author Khanal, Shiva author Boer, Matthias M. author 2022-12-07T09:45:40Z 2022-12-07T09:45:40Z 2022 Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa. he authors acknowledge the New South Wales Government’s Department of Planning, Industry & Environment for providing funds to support this research via the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. Some of the analysis was carried out on the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) which is supported by the Australian Commonwealth Government. http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/84482 Carbon Sequestration Fires Forests Water Wildfires Foc Canvis climàtics Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand