2026-04-13T06:48:05Zhttps://recercat.cat/oai/request

oai:recercat.cat:10230/711752025-09-11T13:30:13Zcom_2072_6col_2072_452952

00925njm 22002777a 4500 dc Vlaskamp, Martijn author 2025-09-09T11:47:27Z 2025-09-09T11:47:27Z 2025 Existing research has shown a correlation between lower oil prices and political instability in oil-rich countries. This paper examines the conditions under which declining oil revenues can contribute to political instability in such countries, with a focus on the impact of the 1980s oil glut on 29 oil-rich countries. Employing Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), the study identifies three distinct pathways to political instability during this period. Each instance of political instability corresponded to a distinct causal configuration bringing together low oil abundance and high oil dependence with one specific political condition: either high clientelism, relatively high public service provision, or significant political freedom. The findings illustrate the complex interplay of factors that influence the relationship between declining oil revenues and political stability. While rooted in a historical context, the results offer insights for the future, as the global transition to renewable energy may similarly affect oil revenues, posing potential risks to political stability in oil-rich countries. This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation program “Strategic Projects on the Ecological Transition and Digital Transition” and is part of the OILDOWN research project (Grant number: TED2021-132846 A-I00). http://hdl.handle.net/10230/71175 Natural resources Oil Political stability Qualitative comparative analysis Renewable energy transition Rentier states Pathways to instability: how decreasing oil prices impact political stability in petrostates – Lessons from the 1980s oil glut