2026-04-17T16:20:04Zhttps://recercat.cat/oai/request

oai:recercat.cat:10230/691842025-12-12T02:17:44Zcom_2072_6col_2072_452952

00925njm 22002777a 4500 dc van Nunen, Erik author Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J. author Curto Tirado, Ariadna, 1987- author Donaire González, David author Cirach, Marta author Hoek, Gerard author 2025-01-20T07:35:50Z 2025-01-20T07:35:50Z 2017 Long-term ultrafine particle (UFP) exposure estimates at a fine spatial scale are needed for epidemiological studies. Land use regression (LUR) models were developed and evaluated for six European areas based on repeated 30 min monitoring following standardized protocols. In each area; Basel (Switzerland), Heraklion (Greece), Amsterdam, Maastricht, and Utrecht (“The Netherlands”), Norwich (United Kingdom), Sabadell (Spain), and Turin (Italy), 160–240 sites were monitored to develop LUR models by supervised stepwise selection of GIS predictors. For each area and all areas combined, 10 models were developed in stratified random selections of 90% of sites. UFP prediction robustness was evaluated with the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) at 31–50 external sites per area. Models from Basel and The Netherlands were validated against repeated 24 h outdoor measurements. Structure and model R2 of local models were similar within, but varied between areas (e.g., 38–43% Turin; 25–31% Sabadell). Robustness of predictions within areas was high (ICC 0.73–0.98). External validation R2 was 53% in Basel and 50% in The Netherlands. Combined area models were robust (ICC 0.93–1.00) and explained UFP variation almost equally well as local models. In conclusion, robust UFP LUR models could be developed on short-term monitoring, explaining around 50% of spatial variance in longer-term measurements. This work was funded by the EU seventh Framework Program EXPOSOMICS Project. Grant Agreement No.: 308610, and the Compagnia di San Paolo (Turin, Italy) to Paolo Vineis. We are very grateful to the following people for their contribution: Jules Kerckhoffs, Cristina Vert Roca, Annemarie Melis, Andreas Schwärzler, Gregor Juretzko, Katja Stähli, Sandra Okorga, Benjamin Flueckiger, Lourdes Arjona, Pau Pañella, Danai Dafni, and Minas Iak. We thank Maastricht University and the municipality of Amsterdam for using their facilities during the short-term monitoring campaigns. Estructura química Seguiment ambiental Partícules (Matèria) Land use regression models for ultrafine particles in six european areas