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Systemic crises and growth
Rancière, Romain; Tornell, Aaron; Westermann, Frank
Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa
In this paper, we document the fact that countries that have experienced occasional financial crises have on average grown faster than countries with stable financial conditions. We measure the incidence of crisis with the skewness of credit growth, and find that it has a robust negative effect on GDP growth. This link coexists with the negative link between variance and growth typically found in the literature. To explain the link between crises and growth we present a model where weak institutions lead to severe financial constraints and low growth. Financial liberalization policies that facilitaterisk-taking increase leverage and investment. This leads to higher growth, but also toa greater incidence of crises. Conditions are established under which the costs of crises are outweighed by the benefits of higher growth.
2005-09-15
Macroeconomics and International Economics
financial constraints
growth and institutions
bailout guarantees
volatility
emerging markets
L'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
Working Paper
         

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