Use this identifier to quote or link this document:

Civil war and foreign influence
Albornoz, Facundo; Hauk, Esther
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica; Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica
We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.
Negociacions -- Models matemàtics
Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús de Creative Commons, amb la qual es permet copiar, distribuir i comunicar públicament l'obra sempre que se'n citin l'autor original, la universitat, la unitat i l’institut i no se'n faci cap ús comercial ni obra derivada, tal com queda estipulat en la llicència d'ús (
Working Paper
Working papers; 836.10

Full text files in this document

Files Size Format
83610.pdf 374.2 KB PDF

Show full item record

Related documents

Other documents of the same author

Albornoz, Facundo; Cabrales, Antonio, 1964-; Hauk, Esther
Esteban, Joan; Albornoz, Facundo; Vanin, Paolo
Burguet, Roberto; Ganuza Fernández, Juan José; Hauk, Esther