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Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population
Bolancé Losilla, Catalina; Alemany Leira, Ramon; Guillén Estany, Montserrat
Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP)
Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.
2010-09
Medical economics
Health costs
Economic forecasting
Life expectancy
Health services
Social service
Spain
31 - Demografia. Sociologia. Estadística
33 - Economia
338 - Situació econòmica. Política econòmica. Gestió, control i planificació de l'economia. Producció. Serveis. Turisme. Preus
Economia de la salut
Costos de salut
Previsió econòmica
Esperança de vida
Serveis sanitaris
Serveis socials
Espanya
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35 p.
Working Paper
Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP)
XREAP;2010-8
         

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