dc.contributor |
Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP) |
dc.contributor.author |
Matas i Prat, Anna |
dc.contributor.author |
Raymond Bara, José Luis |
dc.contributor.author |
Ruiz, Adriana |
dc.date.accessioned |
2009-11-03T09:50:42Z |
dc.date.accessioned |
2021-01-20T16:47:19Z |
dc.date.available |
2009-11-03T09:50:42Z |
dc.date.available |
2021-01-20T16:47:19Z |
dc.date.created |
2009-11 |
dc.date.issued |
2009-11 |
dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/2072/42003 |
dc.format.extent |
33 p. |
dc.format.extent |
220287 bytes |
dc.format.mimetype |
application/pdf |
dc.language.iso |
eng |
dc.publisher |
Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP) |
dc.relation.ispartofseries |
XREAP;2009-12 |
dc.rights |
Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús de Creative Commons, amb la qual es permet copiar, distribuir i comunicar públicament l'obra sempre que se'n citin l'autor original, la universitat i la xarxa i no se'n faci cap ús comercial ni obra derivada, tal com queda estipulat en la llicència d'ús (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/es/) |
dc.subject.other |
Planificació del transport |
dc.subject.other |
Enginyeria del trànsit |
dc.title |
Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints |
dc.type |
info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper |
dc.subject.udc |
33 - Economia |
dc.subject.udc |
332 - Economia regional i territorial. Economia del sòl i de la vivenda |
dc.description.abstract |
Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires. |